James Swe
The 7.7-magnitude earthquake that struck Myanmar on March 28, 2025, did more than shatter buildings – it shattered the junta’s illusion of control. While international observers speculate about the disaster’s geopolitical implications, the truth is clear: the earthquake has accelerated the military regime’s collapse, exposed its moral bankruptcy, and galvanized a resistance movement that refuses to surrender.
1. Naypyidaw: The Junta’s Crumbling Fortress
Naypyidaw, the junta’s sprawling capital built to project invincibility, lies in ruins. Government ministries collapsed, staff housing units crumbled, and the presidential palace’s gold-lined staircase now dangles over debris. Designed as a “fortress city,” Naypyidaw’s destruction is symbolic: a regime that cannot protect its own seat of power cannot govern a nation. Over 4,000 housing units were destroyed, forcing bureaucrats and soldiers’ families to sleep in tents without water or electricity. Even the secret underground command center flooded, paralyzing military operations.
This is not just physical damage – it is a spiritual reckoning. In a country where natural disasters are seen as omens, the earthquake has fueled whispers of divine retribution against a regime steeped in superstition and brutality.
2. Ceasefire Lies and Aerial Terror
The junta’s post-earthquake “ceasefire” was a grotesque charade. Despite pledging to halt hostilities on April 2, the military launched 243 attacks in the following weeks, including 171 airstrikes. In Naungcho, northern Shan State, junta jets bombed a village just three hours after the quake, killing seven. On April 16, a pregnant woman shielding her children died in a Karen State airstrike during Burmese New Year celebrations. Satellite data confirms at least 22 villages were bombed during the ceasefire period, with junta air attacks increasing by 27% compared to prior months.
The junta’s reliance on Russian and Chinese fighter jets – tools of terror, not governance – underscores its moral bankruptcy. As UN envoy Tom Andrews noted: “Dropping bombs while claiming to facilitate aid is nothing short of incredible”.
3. International Aid: A Double-Edged Sword
China’s Coercive “Compassion”
Beijing rushed $13.7 million in aid and 30 rescue teams, but its generosity was strategic. Chinese workers operated in both junta-held areas and territories controlled by ethnic resistance groups like the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), showcasing Beijing’s dual influence. Yet, China also strong-armed the MNDAA to retreat from Lashio – a city resistance forces had liberated – by threatening border closures and freezing bank accounts. This betrayal reveals China’s priority: stability for its Belt and Road investments, not Myanmar’s people.
ASEAN’s Paralysis
While Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim pushed for ceasefire extensions, ASEAN’s aid channels through the junta legitimized its obstruction. Junta checkpoints blocked aid to resistance strongholds like Sagaing, forcing communities to rely on grassroots networks like the Sagaing Forum.
India and Thailand’s Balancing Act
India sent naval ships and 625 tons of supplies, aligning with its “Neighbourhood First” policy but risking complicity in junta crimes. Thailand, hosting junta leader Min Aung Hlaing at a regional summit, quietly allowed cross-border aid to resistance zones – a tacit nod to the revolution’s inevitability.
4. The Resistance: Defying Bombs and Blockades
Kachin State: Rare Earth and Resilience
The Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and allies seized Indaw after an eight-month battle, capturing 300 junta bases since 2021. Despite relentless airstrikes, they control rare-earth mines vital to China’s tech industry – a strategic thorn in Beijing’s side.
Arakan Army: Marching Toward Victory
The Arakan Army (AA) now governs 14 of 17 townships in Rakhine State, besieging Sittwe and Kyaukphyu – home to Chinese energy projects. Their control of the Kaladan River corridor threatens junta supply lines.
Chin State: Sacrifice and Solidarity
In Falam Township, Chin resistance forces lost 89 fighters in a five-month offensive but secured a symbolic victory on their movement’s fourth anniversary. With AA support, they’ve liberated 14 towns, isolating junta holdouts like Hakha.
Karen State: Cutting the Junta’s Lifeline
Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) and PDF forces severed the Asia Highway, trapping junta troops in Kawkareik. “They’ve encircled the town,” admitted a defected sergeant.
5. The Junta’s Last Gasp
The earthquake exposed the regime’s fatal flaws:
• Resource Collapse: The junta faces a $5 billion reconstruction bill for Naypyidaw while starving survivors of aid.
• Diplomatic Isolation: Its rare plea for international help – a sign of desperation – changed no minds. The UN estimates 17 million need urgent aid, yet junta checkpoints block 70% of deliveries.
• Moral Bankruptcy: Bombing mosques, monasteries, and displacement camps, the junta has alienated even its Buddhist base.
To the People of Myanmar: Your Power Is Unmatched
The junta wants you to believe it thrives in chaos. Do not be fooled. Every cracked ministry in Naypyidaw, every stolen aid truck, every lie to the world is a sign of their fear.
You have survived coups, airstrikes, and torture chambers. Now, you face nature’s fury – and still, you endure. Your hospitals are in caves, your schools in tents, your armies farmers with rifles. Yet, you hold the moral high ground.
To the World: Stand with the Resistance, Not the Regime
The junta’s “stability” is a myth. China, India, and ASEAN must choose: prop up a collapsing regime or align with Myanmar’s people. The NUG and ethnic resistance groups have proven their ability to govern-without executions, airstrikes, or stolen aid.
The UN Security Council must impose an aviation fuel embargo now. Every Russian jet and Chinese bullet enables the junta’s terror.
Conclusion: The Earthquake Didn’t Save the Junta – It Hastened Their End
History shows tyrants fall when their failures outpace their propaganda. The 2025 earthquake did more than destroy buildings – it exposed the junta’s rot to the world and reminded Myanmar’s people of their indomitable strength.
To the resistance: Keep organizing. Keep resisting. The junta’s time is borrowed.
To the world: See clearly. The revolution will win-not because the earthquake doomed the junta, but because the people of Myanmar refuse to be doomed.
The fortress has fallen. The future is yours.
This commentary does not necessarily reflect the views of Mizzima Media.
